Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
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The thing that makes the Kentucky Derby great is that you never know exactly how the race is going to unfold over 1 1/4-miles at Churchill Downs, with 18 horses expected to be loaded into the starting game on Saturday.
© Seth Wenig, AP Tiz the Law (8), with jockey Manny Franco up, crosses the finish line to win the 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes horse race in Elmont, N.Y.But what are the odds that the top three choices in the morning line odds would end up drawing the three outside post positions.
That means favored Tiz the Law (saddle No. 17), second choice Honor A.P (16) and speedster Authentic (18) could have their fate determined over the first two furlongs, as field barrells towards the first turn.
The Kentucky Derby will be broadcast live on NBC from 2:30-7:30 p.m., with post time set for 6:50 p.m.
Related: Kentucky Derby post positions, morning line, info
Here are the selections from our expert panel:
2020 Kentucky Derby Field
Horse (Jockey) morning line
1. Finnick the Fierce (Garcia) 50-1
2. Max Player (Santana) 30-1
3. Enforceable (Beschizza) 30-1
4. Storm the Court (Leparoux) 50-1
5. Major Fed (Graham) 50-1
6. King Guillermo (Camacho) scratched
7. Money Moves (Castellano) 30-1
8. South Bend (Gaffalione) 50-1
9. Mr. Big News (G.Saez) 50-1
10. Thousand Words (Geroux) 15-1
11. Necker Island (Mena) 50-1
12. Sole Volante (Panici) 30-1
13. Attachment Rate (Talamo) 50-1
14. Winning Impression (Rocco Jr.) 50-1
15. Ny Traffic (Lopez) 20-1
16. Honor A.P. (Smith) 5-1
17. Tiz the Law (Franco) 3/5
18. Authentic (Velazquez) 8-1
Sean Nolan (15-time National Horseplayers Championship qualifier, 2001 runnerup, four Top 20 finishes)
1. Tiz the Law: No value here as the odds-on favorite but there is no legitimate reason to pick against him. He drew the 17 post (now post 16 with scratch of King Guillermo), which will give Manny Franco the option to pick what flight he wants to be in when they hit the first turn. The classy colt should be able to relax outside the speed and expect him to open up as the field turns for home. On to the Preakness and Breeder’s Cup Classic!
2. Thousand Words: Really coming into his own now and his loping stride should help him negotiate the 1¼ miles without much problem. Baffert knows how to prepare them for the big races. Expect Geroux will put him in the race right off the bat. Offers some value with a Tiz the Law exacta.
3. Ny Traffic: Has the knack to get involved early and hang around. He has a series of 5 furlong works that says he is still on edge and he likes the Churchill Downs oval. A logical exotics play.
4. Necker Island is my choice of several plodders to pick up the pieces. Taking the blinkers off should help him relax and get the extra 1/8 of a mile.
Bob Jordan, USA TODAY NETWORK Atlantic Group Sports Deputy Director
1. Authentic: Won the Haskell at Monmouth Park but it didn't feel like a win. He was up by 2 1/2 lengths passing the furlong pole but jockey Mike Smith had to frantically urge Authentic after letting him breeze to deep stretch. Smith, who said Authentic “sees things” and was distracted by shadows, has landed on another mount here but that's due to a prior agreement so shouldn't be seen as a lack of endorsement. All said, this is a pretty good horse with a ridiculous post draw who's going to be in the range of 15-1 odds. He had his final workout Sunday - covering six furlongs in 1:12.40 at Del Mar - and trainer Bob Baffert said, “Authentic is really doing well. I see him turning the corner.”
2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
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2. Max Player: This is the horse that was taken away from trainer Linda Rice and turned over to Steve Asmussen, despite running third in both the Belmont Stakes and Travers, and despite Asmussen having an 0 for 20 record in the Run for the Roses. To be truthful Max Player at no point in either the Belmont or Travers looked like a winner but he just keeps plugging away, a trait that is good to have in the Derby.
3. Tiz the Law: America's horse will be one of the heaviest Derby favorites in years but has rarely faced adversity, the exception being on this racetrack when he finished out his 2019 season in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. That didn't go well. On sloppy footing, Tiz the Law failed to accelerate after being trapped briefly in a pocket position. Reasonable to take a stand against the Belmont Stakes winner in the return visit to Churchill.
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Steve Edelson, USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey sports columnist/racing writer
1. Tiz the Law: The late defection of Art Collector, expected to be the second choice, is big for Tiz the Law. Art Collector was a legitimate threat here. With 103 and 102 Beyer Speed Figures over the last two wins, Art Collector could have been there at the wire if Tiz the Law had a troubled trip. Now Tiz the Law, with a dazzling 109 Beyer in the Travers, has one less top contender to deal with. The formula has been the same all year: Sit just off the speed and then take over with a powerful late run. He'll have to break well, however, from the wide post if he wants to be the first ever to win from that post position.
2. Authentic: Look for the plan to be the same with John Velazquez in the saddle as it was when Mike Smith rode in the Haskell. If Authentic can get to the front, and they will be forced to go by the far outside post position, they’ll try to go wire-to-wire. That worked at nine furlongs, but likely won’t at 10 furlongs. Authentic will dig in gamely, but won’t be able to hold off Tiz the Law.
3. Max Player: So who gets up for third to complete the trifecta? In the Belmont Stakes and the Travers Stakes it was Max Player, who will once again be charging from the back of the field. Gives a great effort every time, never worse than third in five career starts. Goes from Linda Rice’s barn to Steve Asmussen’s for the Derby.
Steven Falk, Asbury Park Press Sports Writer.
1. Honor A.P.: A horse who should love the 1 1/4 mile distance. He has been working very well at Del Mar with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard for his last three works. He was very impressive in pulling away from Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby on June 6 and earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He was defeated at 1-5 in the Shared Belief at Del Mar on Aug. 1, but that had all the makings of a horse who was not fully cranked and was prepping for this. Yet, he still earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure even though he clearly only ran in spots. It was a means to an end.
2. Tiz The Law: If he runs anything close to the 109 Beyer Speed Figure he put up in demolishing the field in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 8, the rest of this field is running for second. That Beyer Speed Figure would make him tough in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He is 3-5 on the morning line because he has clearly shown he is the best horse among this group. However, the best horse does not always win, and if he drops a few points on the Beyer, maybe he is vulnerable. Nobody should leave him off any exacta, trifecta, superfecta or multi-race tickets.
3. Max Player:I hope we get something close to 30-1 on the morning line so the trifecta can be spiced up a little bit. But, I doubt, we will get that price. Even 20-1 will be nice. This grinder is the type of horse who hits the board in the Derby a lot at a decent number. His Beyer Speed Figures have gone up every time. Another forward move gets him on the board.
Greg Giombarrese, Lakewood BlueClaws Director of Communications
1. Honor A.P.: If someone is to upset Tiz the Law, they are going to have to move forward on Saturday and Honor AP can do that as he stretches out to 10 furlongs for the first time. He will relish the added distance of this race, stretching out from a 8.5 furlong prep at Del Mar which was purely a tune-up and in which he was against the race flow. He ran very well, matching his best speed figure earned in the Santa Anita Derby two-back in which he punched his ticket to this spot. He's sitting on a career-best race, and if Tiz the Law doesn't replicate his dominant Travers, Honor AP can beat him at a fair price.
2. Tiz the Law: He will be a heavy favorite, and deserves to be, after a romp in the Travers in which he earned a field-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He fires every time, has a dominant win at the distance, and comes from a barn that won this race with a fellow NY-bred, Funny Cide, 17 years ago. He'll also be one of the shortest priced Derby favorites in history and while he is the horse to beat, Honor AP can beat him, though we're not sure anyone else in here can.
Kentucky Derby Betting Trifecta
3. Enforceable: He's been caught in a series of races where the race flows made it tough to make up ground. The top two in his last race are better than anyone in here outside of the top two, and he stretches out to 10 furlongs, which should help him. He can hit the board at a big price.
Ken Jordan (five times among top finishers at NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship, four Top 10s at Horseplayers World Series)
1.Tiz the Law: The most-accomplished runner in here and a well-deserved favorite (though unbettable in the win pool at 3/5). His Travers gave the impression that there is still more to give. All of the racing world hoping he is the last Derby starter to come into the race off a win at 1 1/4 miles.
2. Authentic: It seems everyone is convinced that his Haskell stretch jog will prevent him from winning Derby. Respect his speed and connections.
3. Attachment Rate: Longshot has flashed talent that has been effectively hidden by overconfident rides, traffic, and wide trips. A must use in all exotic slots.
4. NY Traffic: Knocking at the door against some tough ones while improving speed figures equals a great chance to hit the board.
Kentucky Derby Betting Sites
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Kentucky Derby 2020: Betting guide and predictions; Can Tiz the Law win from wide post?