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Blackjack Calculation

4/3/2022
  1. Blackjack Card Counting Calculator
  2. Blackjack Index Calculation
  3. Blackjack Calculation Crossword Clue
  4. Poker Calculation Programs

Do the same thing for at least 2 player cards. Add more player cards as desired. The Blackjack Calculator will immediately recommend the best move for you to make. Click the Reset button to start a new hand. The Blackjack Calculator is based off the following. Probability of obtaining a blackjack from the first two cards is P = 32/663 = 4.82654% in the case of a 1-deck game and P = 64/1339= 4.77968% in the case of a 2-deck game. Similarly, we can calculate the following probabilities. Playing Efficiency (PE): This is a measure of how effectively a counting system can be used to vary strategy. 0.70 is an approximate cap on the highest possible PE for a single parameter counting system. Betting Correlation (BC): This is a measure of how effective a system is in detecting the player’s advantage based on the remaining cards.It is based on how closely the card counting tags. Blackjack Basic Strategy and House Edge Calculation Spreadsheet dealer. The lower part shows the probabilities when the dealer doesn't check the hole card (European hole card rule). For standing, the expected return is calculated as ($1). (probability that the dealer will bust or end up.

Card counters know that before we bet or play using a balanced strategy,we must adjust the running count by the un-dealt cards. That is, convertthe running count into a true count. Most explanations of true count calculationsimply say that the running count is divided by the number of remainingdecks in the shoe. Blackjack card counting books generally provide a simpleexample, like a running count of +6 divided by three remaining decks yieldsa true count of +2 — and they leave it at that. As a result manyquestions remain. The attempt here is to answer some of these questions.

What is the true count divisor?

When using the Hi-Lo card counting strategy, we divide by the numberof remaining decks. But this is not true of all strategies. For example:

  • Revere Point Count and Hi-Lo Lite divide by remaining half-decks.
  • The 1998 version of Zen divides by quarter-decks remaining. The originalZen divided by full-decks.
  • The Mentor card counting strategy essentially divides by the numberof double-decks remaining. More on this later.

Generally, there is not much difference in overall effectiveness. However,if you are not using fractional true counts for betting, there is a performancepenalty for using half-decks in a level 1 strategy or quarter-decks ina level 2 strategy.

How are non-integer results handled?

Suppose we have a running count of +3 and 2 remaining decks. 3/2=1.5.However, nearly all counters use integers for betting and indexes. Thereexist four methods of converting to integers:

Blackjack
  • Truncate – For positive numbers,round down and for negative numbers round up. This is the method usedin the 1994 and later editions of Professional Blackjack. 1.5is rounded down to 1. -1.5 is rounded up to -1.
  • Floor – Numbers are always roundeddown. This is the method used in the early versions of ProfessionalBlackjack. 1.5 is rounded down to 1. -1.5 is rounded down to -2.This is the most popular method used now.
  • Round – After the True Count division,the result is rounded to the nearest integer. If the number is exactlybetween two integers, it is rounded up. 1.5 is rounded up to 2. -1.5is rounded up to -1. This method is also common.
  • Statistical Round – After the TrueCount division, the result is rounded to the nearest integer. If thenumber is exactly between two integers, it is rounded to the nearesteven number. 1.5 is rounded up to 2. -1.5 is rounded down to -2.

Flooring and rounding are nearly equal in performance. Truncating isslightly inferior as it results in a very large percentage of true countsof zero, which in turn results in reduced precision. For best performance,you should use the method that was used when the indexes that you usewere generated.

Blackjack Calculation

How do we estimate remaining decks?

We need to divide by a number related to the number of decks remaining.But how do we obtain this number. Different players estimate the remainingcards in different manners as follows:

  • Look at the shoe – This seems obviousas we are dividing by the number of remaining decks, and they are sittingin the shoe. However, this is not very accurate as all the cards arenot visible and the cards are not always stacked tightly. Very few peopleuse this method. On the other hand, Revere used to teach this methodin his private classes precisely because so few people use this methodand it doesn't require looking at the discard tray. Also, some tablesnow hide the cards in the discard tray.
  • Subtract cards in discard tray –The most common method is to look at the discard tray and subtract fromthe starting number of decks. Of course this is not quite accurate forplaying decisions since it ignores the cards on the table.
  • Subtract cards dealt – In calculatingthe remaining cards, subtract the total number of cards dealt from thetotal cards including those on the table both seen and unseen. Thisis a bit more accurate, and more difficult. (Many Blackjack simulatorsincorrectly use this method.)
  • Subtract cards seen – Only takeinto account the actual number of cards seen. That is the cards in thediscard tray (minus unseen burn cards) plus only the cards on the tablethat you have seen. This is the most accurate and the most difficult.Few people use this method.
  • Count hands – In single deck games,some people count the number of hands, multiply by 2.7 and subtractfrom 52.

By far, most people look at the discard tray.

How closely must we estimate remaining decks?

That is, what is the resolution of the estimate. Very few people estimateremaining cards to the exact card. (Although some Blackjack simulatorsinaccurately assume this.) When playing shoes, most people estimate tothe nearest remaining full-decks or half-decks remaining. When playingsingle deck, you should estimate by quarter-decks. In deeply-dealt games,you might want to be more accurate toward the end of the shoe. Alas wesee few deeply-dealt Blackjack games these days. For best results, youshould estimate the remaining decks to the same degree of accuracy thatwas used during generation of the indexes that you are using.

Custom true count calculation

Some people use a table of divisors (or multipliers) instead of dividingby the remaining decks. For example, the Mentor count uses a table ofmultipliers used to convert the running count to a true count dependingon a table of remaining decks that becomes more precise as the shoe isdepleted. This is described in Blackjack Bluebook II by Fred Renzey.

True count calculation by rounds

Yet another method is to look up a multiplier in a table based on thenumber of players and the round number. Then use that multiplier to convertthe running count to a true count. This can be used in single deck play.This is described in Play Blackjack Like the Pros by Kevin Blackwood.

How often do we calculate true counts?

Everyone recalculates before making a bet. Different players make additionalrecalculations differently as follows:

  • Before Insurance – Recalculate beforean Insurance bet. Counts all seen cards, including all of your handsin face down dealing.
  • Before first decision – Recalculatebefore the first playing decision in each hand.
  • Before every close decision – Recalculatefor every playing decision that matters.

Recalcualtion for every decision is very important in single-deck Blackjackgames. In shoe games, failing to recalculate results in a performancehit of 5%-10% depending on penetration.

Is there any time that I do not calculate true count?

Some people use the running count for decisions with a zero index. Forexample, when you have a 16 vs. ten, the running count is actually a bitmore accurate than the true count using some strategies.

And you thought it was simple.J

Blackjack, unlike other gambling games is not considered a game of chance, it is one that you can win if you start applying some knowledge. Unlike many other games where the result depends on player luck only, this game provides probabilities depending on the player decisions. Therefore, in order to win you have to know what your probabilities are now and how and when to increase them.

Before we take a look at player and dealer blackjack odds, we should consider all the parameters that affect the odds in the game.

House Edge Calculator
The easiest way for you to calculate the odds in blackjack is by using our free House Edge Calculator. This tool will help you to count player odds and the probabilities of dealer going bust on various dealer's up cards.

Blackjack Rules Variations

Blackjack variations were created to entertain players and provide them with a chance to win more money on side bets. Each rule variation affects the house edge, some rules making a big, others making a minor difference. Most common rule variations can be found at our House Edge Calculator in the «Rules» window. Now, let's take a closer look at the rules and see how they affect the odds in the game.

NOTE: The rules chosen in the table below are most favorable for the player.

Number of decks

The first thing a player should consider when choosing a table is the number of decks used in the game. The more decks there are - the less odds the player has. (See the table - Probabilities – Number of decks)

Dealer hits or stands on soft 17

The main rules of the game are usually written on the table felt and it may say either dealer hits or stands on soft 17. If according to the rules dealer hits soft 17, the game gives the house a 0.2% extra edge.

Rules for doubling

This rule is sometimes called the 'Reno' rule, which restricts doubling only to certain hand totals. Double 9 - 11 affects the house edge increasing it by 0.09% (8 decks game) and 0.15% (1 deck game). Double 10-11 increases the house edge by 0.17% (8 decks game) and 0.26% (1 deck game).

Doubling after Split

If the casino allows a player to double after he splits a pair, the player will get a further edge of around 0.12%.

Resplitting

Most casinos allow players to split again after he/she splits a pair and is dealt another card of the same rank. However, if the casino does not, this means the odds favor the house. As the best hands for splitting are a pair of Aces and 8s, there may be a special rule for Splitting Aces. If the casino allows the player to re-split Aces, the player gets a 0.03% extra edge. Moreover, in most cases if the player splits Aces, the casino will deal only one card per hand and that's it. Allowing players to hit on a hand of Split Aces gives the player an edge of 0.13%. We do not consider this rule in our calculator due to the fact it is almost never used, especially online.

Good for player
  • 1 deck of cards (house edge 0.17%)
  • Doubling allowed on any cards
  • Doubling allowed after Split and after Hit (player edge 0.12%)
  • Early surrender is preferable
  • Dealer stands on soft 17 (player edge 0.2%)
  • Resplitting any cards allowed (player edge 0.03%)

Extra Rules Affecting Blackjack Odds

European No-Hole-Card Rule

Some blackjack variations are played with a hole card that is dealt to the dealer only after all the players have played their hands. This rule affects player strategy when playing against dealer up 10 or an Ace. In a typical hole-card game the player would know whether the dealer has a Blackjack or not before he makes any decisions. In this game, however, the player is risking a lot more if he decides to double or split. This rule adds 0.11% to the house advantage. However, there may be some casinos that allow the player to push on all the additional bets (doubling down and splitting pairs) if the dealer happens to have Blackjack.

Another Payouts on Blackjack

The classic payout on player Blackjack is 3 to 2. However, some casinos change the payout to increase the house edge. The payout on blackjack thus may vary from 1:1 to 6:5. As a Blackjack hand frequency is approximately 4.8% (see the table Two Card Hand Frequency), the payout of 1:1 will increase house edge by 2.3% and the payout of 6:5 - by 1.4%. The first rule (1:1) is only rarely found , while the second (6:5) can be found at some tables with a single deck blackjack game. The payout on Blackjack is generally written on a table felt.

Best tip
for odds seekers

The easiest way to choose the game with the highest odds is to play blackjack with no extra special rules. Do not forget where your basic odds are hidden - chance to Split, Double Down and get a 3 to 2 payout on Natural.

Dealer wins Ties

Another disadvantage for the player is when the rules of the game say that dealer wins all ties. This rule is almost never used in the classic games, though it can be found in some blackjack variations.

Insurance

The Insurance bet is a casino trick that gives the house a huge edge. The main factor why many players take this bet lies in the fact it costs only half of the original one. However, when the player takes Insurance every time he plays the game, the house edge may raise up to 7%. Added to all the other rules the casino sets on the game and you will see why probabilities are worth learning if you want to quit winners.

Side Bets

All blackjack games that offer side bets seem to be the biggest attraction for blackjack lovers. However, if you consider blackjack odds on these bets, you will notice that no matter how big the jackpot is (as in progressive blackjack rules) or how great the payout is for the pair (as in perfect pairs rules), the odds still favor the house and you are not likely to win.

Blackjack Probabilities charts

Number of decksHouse Advantage %
Single0.17
20.46
40.60
60.64
80.66

The quantity of decks increases the house advantage with each extra deck added to the game. Look for games with the smallest number of decks. However, some games offering a chance to play with 1 deck may only still provide low player odds due to low payouts on Blackjack and other rules. Be sure to check them before you play.

Hand value% frequency
214.8
17-2030
1-1638.7
No Bust26.5

The table on the left describes how often the following hands can appear. The hands are the first two-cards dealt to the player. The frequency stands for the average number of times dealt per deck of cards. As you can see, the most frequent hands dealt are the 'Decision hands' that demand knowledge of blackjack strategy.

Hand value% of busting
21100
2092
1985
1877
1769
1662
1558
1456
1339
1231
11 or less0

In this table you can see the probability of going bust on any hand if the player decides to Hit. This means that with 0% you can never go bust when hitting a hand of 11 or less. As you can see, the table is for hard hand totals as you will 100% bust if you Hit on a hand of hard 21.

Blackjack Card Counting Calculator

CardHouse edge %
(when cards removed)
20.40
30.43
40.52
50.67
60.45
70.30
80.01
9-0.15
10,J,Q,K-0.51
Ace-0.59

You probably already know that in blackjack small cards in the deck favor the dealer while big ones favor the player. In this table you can see that removing 2s from the deck adds a 0.40% of advantage to the player, while if 10's are taken out - the odds are 0.51% for the house.

Blackjack Index Calculation

Dealer Face Up CardDealer Bust %Player Odds %
(Using Basic Strategy)
235.39.8
337.5613.4
440.2818
542.8923.2
642.0823.9
725.9914.3
823.865.4
923.34-4.3
10,J,Q,K21.43-16.9
Ace11.65-16

Blackjack probabilities are calculated due to different parameters, including the dealer up card. The table on the left depicts how likely it is that dealer will go bust with certain up cards and what the player odds are in this very situation. For example, the highest player odds are when the dealer shows a 6, as he is most likely to go bust with this hand. The lowest player odds are when the dealer's up card is a 10 or an Ace.

Blackjack Calculation Crossword Clue

House Edge Calculator
You can count the players and casino odds any time you play with the help of our House Edge Calculator. The tool helps to find the probabilities for any game rules and the results can be calculated for all parameters.

Poker Calculation Programs

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